Bull Oak Newsletters

All Roads Lead To Beijing: China’s Belt and Road Initiative

5/13/2017 – What looks to be the single largest economic-development project in history, the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative will be officially unveiled in Beijing tomorrow at the Belt and Road Summit (Sunday, May 14th). The two-day summit will be hosted by Chinese President ...
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Hope Is Not A Long-Term Strategy

4/2/2017 – If you find that your investment strategy is pinned on the hope that Congress will somehow pass economic-boosting legislation in a timely manner, you may want to reconsider your thought process. There is worry that Republicans will begin to ...
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Mexican-American Standoff: A 20% Import Tax

1/27/2017 – President Trump intends to reshape the relationship between the United States and Mexico. From building a border wall to renegotiating NAFTA, there is a lot of change about. I decided to write about the potential impact of a 20% ...
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White House

Trump’s Tax Plan – A Game Changer For The Markets

11/25/2016 – President-elect Trump has promised to create over 25 million jobs over the next decade and to boost the U.S. GDP to an average rate of 3.5%. He plans to do so by reducing both corporate and personal income tax ...
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San Diego Home

Rental Income and Retirement Planning

11/3/2016 – A lot of my clients are buying real estate properties and renting them out as a strategy to help them with cash flow during retirement. So, I thought I would share what this strategy could look like. The rental ...
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Stocks and Bonds

Stock and Bond Correlation

9/6/2016 – Most investors have only a mix of stocks and bonds in their portfolios. This is because stocks and bonds have historically had a negative correlation. Since 2008, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the iShares 20+ Year ...
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The Fed’s Musical Chairs

8/9/2016 – Today’s marketplace is a peculiar one. When I look at the current market, I like to think that it is similar to the children’s game of musical chairs. As long as the Fed and the other major central ...
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Brexit Is A Big Deal

6/26/2016 – Brexit “Black Friday” cost investors over $2 trillion in market wealth (CNBC) as global stocks fell -5.4%. Here in the U.S., the S&P 500 was down -3.60% and in Europe, the STOXX 50 was down -8.62%. Brexit was ...
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The Corporate Earnings Problem

6/2/2016 – The S&P 500 is yet again trying to reach its all-time high (reached a year ago, May 2015). As I write this, the index is within 2% of this high.  Almost a year ago today, I reallocated all ...
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Who Will Inherit Prince’s Estate?

5/3/2016 – Prince died unexpectedly in Minnesota on April 21st and the cause of his death is still a mystery. There are reports that Prince died from AIDS, from an overdose on cocaine or from Percocet, from influenza, or from other ...
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Is it a Bull or is it a Bear?

4/9/2016 - Is it a bull or is it a bear? The past 18 months have left a number of investors asking this very question. Since October 2014, we have experienced 3 dramatic selloff only to have the market bounce ...
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The Aging Population Problem

3/17/2016 – It’s been a month since my last post was published. I apologize for the delay. My office flooded 2 weeks ago and I’ve been temporarily working out of a cubicle and conference room while my office is being repaired ...
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U.S. Consumers – The Last Line of Defense

2/16/2016 – It is well known that there is considerable concern for the global economy. Red flags are flying high: credit spreads have widened, China is slowing down, inflation levels are almost nonexistent, corporate earnings have stalled, and developed economies are adopting negative interest ...
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Beware – The Shadow Bear Market

2/1/2016 – What a wild ride to begin 2016. The S&P 500 ended the month down -5.0%, though the index was down -9% on Jan 20th before bouncing back somewhat. Here are the results of the 3 Bull Oak portfolios ...
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2016 Five Star Wealth Manager Award

1/22/2016 – For this week’s newsletter, I talk about winning a wealth manager award and fiduciary responsibility. 2016 Five Star Wealth Manager Ryan Hughes was recently named a 2016 Five Star Wealth Manager in San Diego. Ryan is the Founder ...
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First Week Was Worst Week

1/10/2016 – The first week of January was the worst on record. The S&P 500 index fell by -5.96% to close at 1922. The index is now back in September 2015 trading territory. It was an brutal week, no doubt about ...
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2016 Market Outlook

1/4/2016 – This is the time of the year when economists make their 2016 market projections. Of course, these projections are notoriously off-base. At the start of 2015, economists predicted where they thought the S&P 500 would close on Dec 31, 2015 ...
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Fixed Income Prospects After the Fed Rate Hike

12/23/2015 – Today, I was quoted in a US News & World Report articled titled, “Fixed Income Prospects After the Fed Rate Hike.” Here is the link to the original article by Jeff Brown. ——————– “Fixed Income Prospects After the ...
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Who Is Martin Shkreli?

12/18/2015 – If the name Martin Shkreli doesn’t ring a bell, you’ve probably heard of him via his reputation. The 32 year-old is perhaps the most famous pharmaceutical price gouger in history. His company purchased an out-of-patent medicine, Daraprim, and raised the price ...
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Will Oil Lead Us Down?

12/8/15  – Oil has dominated headlines recently. The single most important commodity on the planet has been under significant pressure lately. If this doesn’t tell you that something is wrong with the global economy, then I don’t know what can. This ...
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Santa’s Hangover: Market Update

12/4/2015 - Many investors still believe in the Santa Claus rally. Why not? It is a phenomenon that happens more often than not. The Santa Claus rally usually happens during the week between Christmas Day and New Years Day. What ...
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While China Weighs on All, the Western World Recovers (sort of), and the Fed Looks to Raise Rates

8/4/2015 - Within the past few weeks, things have been looking moderately better in the U.S. and Europe. U.S. GDP is reporting stronger growth and European quantitative easing seems to be working, despite the recent Greek debt drama. So, shouldn’t ...
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Client Letter: Investment Strategy Update

5/14/2015 – On Monday, in response to several disconcerting data points, I reallocated my client’s portfolios to a more defensive allocation. Here is the letter I sent to my clients outlining the reasons why I made such a move: Dear ...
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How King Dollar Changes Everything

3/18/2015 – After a historic 6-year stock rally, this may be the unanticipated event that slows the U.S. stock market advance. The US Dollar started its impressive rally back in July 2014 when investors were contemplating the end of QE ...
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America Has Its Economic Swagger Back. But For How Long?

1/22/2015 - America has its economic swagger back. And it’s about time. Cue the theme song from Rocky and break out your American flag t-shirt. That’s right, the greatest nation on Earth has returned to the economic forefront. But, as always, ...
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Cautious Optimism

11/21/2014 – Believe it or not, but we are witnessing history in the making. From the March 2009 lows, the 5 year and 9 month S&P 500 bull market rally has resulted in a 203% cumulative return! Most that have ...
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