Entries by Ryan Hughes

Why Is Inflation Stubbornly Low?


Global inflation has been stubbornly low for quite some time, creating a difficult situation for central bankers. Of course, central bank action is highly dependent upon inflation levels. And their actions have direct and immediate influence on global stock and bond prices. The problem? U.S. inflation measured by the core PCE has undershot the...

Hope Is Not A Long-Term Strategy


If you find that your investment strategy is pinned on the hope that Congress will somehow pass economic-boosting legislation in a timely manner, you may want to reconsider your thought process. Yes, there is still a chance that tax reform will get passed. But there is also an equally-likely chance that it does not....

Stocks and Bonds


Have you ever wondered why most portfolios have a mix of stocks and bonds in their portfolio? Is there a reason why? The primary reason is because stocks and bonds, more or less, have a negative correlation. This means that if stocks are falling, there is a good chance that bonds are trading higher. This...

The Fed’s Musical Chairs


Today's marketplace is a peculiar one. When I look at the current market, I like to think that it is similar to the children's game of musical chairs. As long as the Fed and the other major central banks are playing their tune, everybody is happy to play along. In fact, I don't think...

Brexit Is A Big Deal


Brexit "Black Friday" cost investors over $2 trillion in market wealth (CNBC) as global stocks fell -5.4%. Here in the U.S., the S&P 500 was down -3.60% and in Europe, the STOXX 50 was down -8.62%. Brexit was largely considered an unforeseen event, a black swan event perhaps. I personally believe it is the largest...

The Corporate Earnings Problem


The S&P 500 is yet again trying to reach its all-time high (reached a year ago, May 2015). As I write this, the index is within 2% of this high.  There are a number of factors that influence the stock market on a day-to-day/ month-to-month/ year-to-year basis. And these factors certainly change as market conditions change....