If California Were A Country

It is no secret that California is the largest and most productive state in the United States. Between Silicon Valley, Hollywood, agriculture, and tourism, there is plenty to be excited about in the Golden State.

California’s GDP last year was $3.2T, representing 14.6% of the total U.S. economy. California’s economy is so big that if it were a country, it would be the 5th largest economy in the world, more productive than India and the United Kingdom.

California GDP Ranked 2019
Source: The World Bank & The Bureau of Economic Analysis

If we were to list the 50 states by economic output, it is easy to see how dominant California really is. In contrast, it is also easy to see how small the economic output of the northern central region states is.

Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov)

California’s Economic Secret

So, what is California’s secret? Is it the weather? The higher wage rates? No, it is not either of these. If we look at this from a mathematical viewpoint, the single biggest factor driving a state’s economic success is the size of its population. The correlation between these two factors is a staggering 98.2%. Yes, Vermont has the smallest economic output, but that can be explained by the fact that only 623K people reside in the state whereas California has 39.5MM people. Of course, there are other factors that drive economic growth, such as education levels, entrepreneurial business environment, availability of capital, etc. But these are topics for another day. I simply want to highlight the real driving force of the U.S. state’s economic output levels: population.

State GDP and Population 2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Bureau of Economic Analysis

If we were to adjust each states’ GDP by its population (per capita), California is no longer on top. New York has the honors to this right. California finishes in 4th place with a $80.5K economic output per person. Note that North Dakota and Alaska, both states that performed poorly on the nominal GDP chart, perform well here.

GDP Per Capita 2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau & Bureau of Economic Analysis

California’s Economy

While not on top on a per capita basis, no one would argue the economic importance of the state. California’s economy is diverse one that is dominated by technology, trade, media, tourism, and agriculture.

The two strongest economic areas are those that surround Los Angeles and San Francisco with media, trade, and tourism driving the former and technology, trade, and tourism driving the latter. While California is the top agricultural producing state in the U.S., it only represents less than 2% of the states GDP. However, according to the California Department of Food and Agriculture, “California agriculture is a $42.6B industry that generates at least $100B in related economic activity.”

If we were to classify California’s economy by its different industries, here is how they contribute as a percentage of the total.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2019 data in billion chained 2012 U.S. dollars

The state’s heavy reliance on finance, real estate, and professional services highlights its recent economic rise. The state fell as low as 10th place in a 2012 global economic ranking due to the impact of the 2008 financial recession before rallying to 5th place in 2017. While California has a diverse economy, it is not so diverse that the most recent recessions hurt the state more than others.

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